Can the Texas Early-Voting Numbers Tell Us Anything?

In October, Texans may raise their eyes toward the sky to see Swainson’s hawks passing through, ruby-throated hummingbirds headed south, and yellow-rumped warblers moving in for the winter. In even-numbered years, they will also hear relentless chittering, in the last two weeks of the month, from partisans trying to make sense of the state’s early-voting numbers. They’re good for Republicans, some will say with perfect conviction, or they’re good for Democrats. A third group, the Election Knowers, smugly chides anyone trying to divine meaning from early-voting patterns. Lingo is fired back and forth—red shifting, backloading, three of three.They do this because there’s a huge audience for it. By this time in the election cycle, most of us hate democracy and hate Cleisthenes for inventing it,…

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