A Skeptic’s Guide to Whether Texas Democrats Can Actually Win This Year

The first person to tell me that their political hopes and dreams relied on Ken Paxton running for Senate was a Texas Democrat. It was January 2025—three months before the attorney general would enter the Republican race and just two months after Democrats had been crushed at the polls up and down the ballot. The Democrat, a consultant who’d worked for various campaigns in the past, did not have much hope in any particular progressive to end the party’s three-decade-long statewide losing streak in Texas. Who could? But in Paxton he saw a savior. If Democrats couldn’t get people to vote for them, perhaps a Republican could get people to not vote at all. A Democratic candidate would, of course, emerge in the race: state Representative…

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